Analys of Factors Associated with Exponencial Growth of Daily COVID-19 Cases During Colombia First Epidemiological Wave
The exponential growth of daily infections by Covid-19 has been one of the characteristics that most affects the dynamics of the Covid-19 pandemic. In this sense, the most significant economic and health impacts have occurred during periods of exponential growth. This work focuses on estimating t...
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| Format: | Online |
| Language: | spa |
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Universidad Pedagógica y Tecnológica de Colombia
2021
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| Online Access: | https://revistas.uptc.edu.co/index.php/ciencia_en_desarrollo/article/view/12602 |
| _version_ | 1801706349203030016 |
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| author | Bustos, Anthony S. Ibarguen Mondragon, Eduardo Cerón Gómez, Miller |
| author_facet | Bustos, Anthony S. Ibarguen Mondragon, Eduardo Cerón Gómez, Miller |
| author_sort | Bustos, Anthony S. |
| collection | OJS |
| description |
The exponential growth of daily infections by Covid-19 has been one of the characteristics that most affects the dynamics of the Covid-19 pandemic. In this sense, the most significant economic and health impacts have occurred during periods of exponential growth. This work focuses on estimating these periods during the first epidemiological wave, and analyze their associated factors, using deterministic and statistical methods. The existence of 10 periods of exponential growth, of which the smallest period has a range of 4 days, while the biggest has a range of 37 days. The highest and lowest infection rates were k1 = 0,5535 and k10 = 0,0521, respectively, with ranges of 4 days. Failure to comply with prevention and containment mea- sures on key dates such as Holy Week, Mother’s Day, the day without value added tax (IVA for its acronym in spanish) and holidays have been the factors that most influence exponential growth; in addition, the reopening of economic sectors and the increase in testing in June con- tributed to the detection of cases, and therefore two periods of exponential growth.
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| format | Online |
| id | oai:oai.revistas.uptc.edu.co:article-12602 |
| institution | Revista Ciencia en Desarrollo |
| language | spa |
| publishDate | 2021 |
| publisher | Universidad Pedagógica y Tecnológica de Colombia |
| record_format | ojs |
| spelling | oai:oai.revistas.uptc.edu.co:article-126022022-06-15T16:53:19Z Analys of Factors Associated with Exponencial Growth of Daily COVID-19 Cases During Colombia First Epidemiological Wave Análisis de los Factores Asociados al Crecimiento Exponencial de los Casos Diarios de COVID-19 durante la primera Ola Epidemiológica en Colombia Bustos, Anthony S. Ibarguen Mondragon, Eduardo Cerón Gómez, Miller crecimiento exponencial; coeficiente de determinación; coeficiente de correlación; tasa de crecimiento; modelo de Malthus; periodo exponential growth; coefficient of determination; correlation coefficient; growth rate; Malthus model; period. The exponential growth of daily infections by Covid-19 has been one of the characteristics that most affects the dynamics of the Covid-19 pandemic. In this sense, the most significant economic and health impacts have occurred during periods of exponential growth. This work focuses on estimating these periods during the first epidemiological wave, and analyze their associated factors, using deterministic and statistical methods. The existence of 10 periods of exponential growth, of which the smallest period has a range of 4 days, while the biggest has a range of 37 days. The highest and lowest infection rates were k1 = 0,5535 and k10 = 0,0521, respectively, with ranges of 4 days. Failure to comply with prevention and containment mea- sures on key dates such as Holy Week, Mother’s Day, the day without value added tax (IVA for its acronym in spanish) and holidays have been the factors that most influence exponential growth; in addition, the reopening of economic sectors and the increase in testing in June con- tributed to the detection of cases, and therefore two periods of exponential growth. Una de las características que más ha afectado la dinámica de la pandemia de Covid-19 es el crecimiento exponencial de contagios diarios por esta enfermedad. Es así, que los impactos económicos y sanitarios más trascendentes se han presentado durante periodos de crecimien- to exponencial. Este trabajo se enfoca en estimar dichos periodos durante la primera ola epide- miológica, y analizar los factores asociados, mediante métodos determinísticos y estadísticos, con la ayuda de las herramientas Excel y Statgraphics. Los resultados indican la existencia de 10 periodos de crecimiento exponencial, de los cuales el periodo más corto cuenta con un rango de 4 días, mientras que el más largo tiene un rango de 37 días. Las tasas de contagio mas alta y mas baja fueron k1 = 0, 5535 y k10 = 0, 0521, respectivamente, durante rangos de 4 días. Entre los factores que más influenciaron este crecimiento exponencial se encuentran, el no acata- miento de las medidas de prevención y contención en fechas claves tales como, semana santa, día de la madre, el día sin IVA y lunes festivos. Además, la reapertura de sectores económicos y el aumento de pruebas en el mes de junio, contribuyeron al aumento y detección de casos. Universidad Pedagógica y Tecnológica de Colombia 2021-09-07 info:eu-repo/semantics/article info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion application/pdf https://revistas.uptc.edu.co/index.php/ciencia_en_desarrollo/article/view/12602 10.19053/01217488.v12.n2.2021.12602 Ciencia En Desarrollo; Vol. 12 No. 2 (2021): Vol 12, Núm.2 (2021): Julio-Diciembre Ciencia en Desarrollo; Vol. 12 Núm. 2 (2021): Vol 12, Núm.2 (2021): Julio-Diciembre 2462-7658 0121-7488 spa https://revistas.uptc.edu.co/index.php/ciencia_en_desarrollo/article/view/12602/11166 |
| spellingShingle | crecimiento exponencial; coeficiente de determinación; coeficiente de correlación; tasa de crecimiento; modelo de Malthus; periodo exponential growth; coefficient of determination; correlation coefficient; growth rate; Malthus model; period. Bustos, Anthony S. Ibarguen Mondragon, Eduardo Cerón Gómez, Miller Analys of Factors Associated with Exponencial Growth of Daily COVID-19 Cases During Colombia First Epidemiological Wave |
| title | Analys of Factors Associated with Exponencial Growth of Daily COVID-19 Cases During Colombia First Epidemiological Wave |
| title_alt | Análisis de los Factores Asociados al Crecimiento Exponencial de los Casos Diarios de COVID-19 durante la primera Ola Epidemiológica en Colombia |
| title_full | Analys of Factors Associated with Exponencial Growth of Daily COVID-19 Cases During Colombia First Epidemiological Wave |
| title_fullStr | Analys of Factors Associated with Exponencial Growth of Daily COVID-19 Cases During Colombia First Epidemiological Wave |
| title_full_unstemmed | Analys of Factors Associated with Exponencial Growth of Daily COVID-19 Cases During Colombia First Epidemiological Wave |
| title_short | Analys of Factors Associated with Exponencial Growth of Daily COVID-19 Cases During Colombia First Epidemiological Wave |
| title_sort | analys of factors associated with exponencial growth of daily covid 19 cases during colombia first epidemiological wave |
| topic | crecimiento exponencial; coeficiente de determinación; coeficiente de correlación; tasa de crecimiento; modelo de Malthus; periodo exponential growth; coefficient of determination; correlation coefficient; growth rate; Malthus model; period. |
| topic_facet | crecimiento exponencial; coeficiente de determinación; coeficiente de correlación; tasa de crecimiento; modelo de Malthus; periodo exponential growth; coefficient of determination; correlation coefficient; growth rate; Malthus model; period. |
| url | https://revistas.uptc.edu.co/index.php/ciencia_en_desarrollo/article/view/12602 |
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