Branching Process to Model the SARS-COV-2 in the City of Bogotá

The objective of the work is to implement a methodology for the description of the evolution of the SARS-CoV2 virus in the city of Bogotá. For this, a Galton Watson process is considered with two types of individuals: reported infected and unreported infected (asymptomatic). Only the daily stati...

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Detalhes bibliográficos
Main Authors:	Plata-Bello, George, Blanco, Liliana, Arunachalam, Viswanathan
Formato:	Online
Idioma:	spa
Publicado em:	Universidad Pedagógica y Tecnológica de Colombia 2022
Assuntos:	Proceso de ramificación Estimación de parámetros valor medio de contagio función generadora de probabilidad pronóstico Branching process, Estimation, Probability generating function, Mean contagion value, Forecast, Proportion.
Acesso em linha:	https://revistas.uptc.edu.co/index.php/ciencia_en_desarrollo/article/view/13368

Descrição
Resumo:	The objective of the work is to implement a methodology for the description of the evolution of the SARS-CoV2 virus in the city of Bogotá. For this, a Galton Watson process is considered with two types of individuals: reported infected and unreported infected (asymptomatic). Only the daily statistics of Covid-19 cases reported by the Bogotá Health Secretariat are used to give a prediction of the mean value of the population contagious individuals. Finally, those individuals who arrive in Bogotá from other cities and even from other countries and who contribute to the spread of the virus are included in the model.