Analysis of the Maximum Seismic Intensity Through the Theory of Extreme Values
The objective of this study was to analyze the seismic behavior of the Pacific Region of Colombia. For the development of the study, local seismic magnitudes of the departments of Chocó, Valle del Cauca, Cauca, and Nariño were included between the years 1993 and 2018. In this sense, and through the...
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| Format: | Online |
| Language: | spa |
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Universidad Pedagógica y Tecnológica de Colombia - UPTC
2022
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| Online Access: | https://revistas.uptc.edu.co/index.php/ingenieria_sogamoso/article/view/14458 |
| _version_ | 1801706696769273856 |
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| author | Pérez, Jonathan Alfonso |
| author_facet | Pérez, Jonathan Alfonso |
| author_sort | Pérez, Jonathan Alfonso |
| collection | OJS |
| description | The objective of this study was to analyze the seismic behavior of the Pacific Region of Colombia. For the development of the study, local seismic magnitudes of the departments of Chocó, Valle del Cauca, Cauca, and Nariño were included between the years 1993 and 2018. In this sense, and through the extreme value theory, the maximum magnitudes in the seismic events that occurred were analyzed to obtain models that describe the behavior of the observations by using the method of maximum blocks and threshold exceedances, which allows the magnitudes to be associated of each of the departments to a type of distribution such as: Gumbel, Weibull or Frechet, from the Widespread Distribution of Values or Beta, Exponential or Pareto with use of the Generalized Pareto Distribution. The results obtained show return levels of 5.08, 6.03, 6.88 and 7.24 for the return periods of 2, 10, 50 and 100 years, respectively, for the department of Chocó using the maximum block method (Gumbel). Likewise, using the method of threshold exceedances (Exponential), it is estimated that, in 100 years, earthquakes of magnitude equal to or greater than 7.2 on the Richter scale may occur in Chocó. |
| format | Online |
| id | oai:oai.revistas.uptc.edu.co:article-14458 |
| institution | Revista Ingeniería, Investigación y Desarrollo |
| language | spa |
| publishDate | 2022 |
| publisher | Universidad Pedagógica y Tecnológica de Colombia - UPTC |
| record_format | ojs |
| spelling | oai:oai.revistas.uptc.edu.co:article-144582022-07-05T21:12:45Z Analysis of the Maximum Seismic Intensity Through the Theory of Extreme Values ANÁLISIS DE LA INTENSIDAD SÍSMICA MÁXIMA MEDIANTE LA TEORÍA DE VALORES EXTREMOS Pérez, Jonathan Alfonso Extreme Values Theory widespread Extreme Values Distribution Widespread Pareto Distribution Magnitude Return Level Teoría Valores Extremos Distribución Valores Extremos Generaliza Distribución de Pareto Generalizada Magnitud Nivel de Retorno The objective of this study was to analyze the seismic behavior of the Pacific Region of Colombia. For the development of the study, local seismic magnitudes of the departments of Chocó, Valle del Cauca, Cauca, and Nariño were included between the years 1993 and 2018. In this sense, and through the extreme value theory, the maximum magnitudes in the seismic events that occurred were analyzed to obtain models that describe the behavior of the observations by using the method of maximum blocks and threshold exceedances, which allows the magnitudes to be associated of each of the departments to a type of distribution such as: Gumbel, Weibull or Frechet, from the Widespread Distribution of Values or Beta, Exponential or Pareto with use of the Generalized Pareto Distribution. The results obtained show return levels of 5.08, 6.03, 6.88 and 7.24 for the return periods of 2, 10, 50 and 100 years, respectively, for the department of Chocó using the maximum block method (Gumbel). Likewise, using the method of threshold exceedances (Exponential), it is estimated that, in 100 years, earthquakes of magnitude equal to or greater than 7.2 on the Richter scale may occur in Chocó. El objetivo de este estudio fue analizar el comportamiento sísmico de la región pacifica de Colombia. Para el desarrollo del estudio se incluyó magnitudes sísmicas locales de los departamentos de Chocó, Valle del Cauca, Cauca y Nariño entre los años 1993 y 2018. En este sentido, y mediante el uso de la teoría de valores extremos, se analizaron las magnitudes máximas en los eventos sísmicos ocurridos para obtener, así, modelos que describen el comportamiento de las observaciones por medio del método de bloques máximos y excedencias del umbral, que permiten asociar las magnitudes máximas de cada uno de los departamentos a un tipo de distribución como lo son: Gumbel, Weibull o Frechet, a partir de Distribución de Valores Generalizada o Beta, Exponencial o Pareto con uso de la Distribución de Pareto Generalizada. Los resultados obtenidos muestran niveles de retorno 5.08, 6.03, 6.88 y 7.24 para los periodos de retorno de 2, 10, 50 y 100 años, respectivamente, para el departamento de Chocó mediante el método de bloque máximo (Gumbel). De igual forma, a través del método de excedencias de umbral (Exponencial), se estima que, en 100 años, pueden ocurrir terremotos en Chocó de magnitud igual o mayor a 7.2 en la escala de Richter. Universidad Pedagógica y Tecnológica de Colombia - UPTC 2022-06-30 info:eu-repo/semantics/article info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion application/pdf https://revistas.uptc.edu.co/index.php/ingenieria_sogamoso/article/view/14458 10.19053/1900771X.v22.n1.2022.14458 Ingeniería Investigación y Desarrollo; Vol. 22 No. 1 (2022): Enero - Junio; 72-78 Ingeniería Investigación y Desarrollo; Vol. 22 Núm. 1 (2022): Enero - Junio; 72-78 2422-4324 1900-771X spa https://revistas.uptc.edu.co/index.php/ingenieria_sogamoso/article/view/14458/11793 |
| spellingShingle | Extreme Values Theory widespread Extreme Values Distribution Widespread Pareto Distribution Magnitude Return Level Teoría Valores Extremos Distribución Valores Extremos Generaliza Distribución de Pareto Generalizada Magnitud Nivel de Retorno Pérez, Jonathan Alfonso Analysis of the Maximum Seismic Intensity Through the Theory of Extreme Values |
| title | Analysis of the Maximum Seismic Intensity Through the Theory of Extreme Values |
| title_alt | ANÁLISIS DE LA INTENSIDAD SÍSMICA MÁXIMA MEDIANTE LA TEORÍA DE VALORES EXTREMOS |
| title_full | Analysis of the Maximum Seismic Intensity Through the Theory of Extreme Values |
| title_fullStr | Analysis of the Maximum Seismic Intensity Through the Theory of Extreme Values |
| title_full_unstemmed | Analysis of the Maximum Seismic Intensity Through the Theory of Extreme Values |
| title_short | Analysis of the Maximum Seismic Intensity Through the Theory of Extreme Values |
| title_sort | analysis of the maximum seismic intensity through the theory of extreme values |
| topic | Extreme Values Theory widespread Extreme Values Distribution Widespread Pareto Distribution Magnitude Return Level Teoría Valores Extremos Distribución Valores Extremos Generaliza Distribución de Pareto Generalizada Magnitud Nivel de Retorno |
| topic_facet | Extreme Values Theory widespread Extreme Values Distribution Widespread Pareto Distribution Magnitude Return Level Teoría Valores Extremos Distribución Valores Extremos Generaliza Distribución de Pareto Generalizada Magnitud Nivel de Retorno |
| url | https://revistas.uptc.edu.co/index.php/ingenieria_sogamoso/article/view/14458 |
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