Inventory model using bayesian dynamic linear model for demand forecasting
An important factor of manufacturing process is the inventory management of terminated product. Constantly, industry is looking for better alternatives to establish an adequate plan of production and stored quantities, with optimal cost, getting quantities in a time horizon, which permits to define...
| Main Authors: | , , |
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| Format: | Online |
| Language: | spa |
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Universidad Pedagógica y Tecnológica de Colombia - UPTC
2014
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| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://revistas.uptc.edu.co/index.php/ingenieria_sogamoso/article/view/3937 |
| _version_ | 1801706687008079872 |
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| author | Valencia-Cárdenas, Marisol Correa-Morales, Juan Carlos Díaz-Serna, Francisco Javier |
| author_facet | Valencia-Cárdenas, Marisol Correa-Morales, Juan Carlos Díaz-Serna, Francisco Javier |
| author_sort | Valencia-Cárdenas, Marisol |
| collection | OJS |
| description | An important factor of manufacturing process is the inventory management of terminated product. Constantly, industry is looking for better alternatives to establish an adequate plan of production and stored quantities, with optimal cost, getting quantities in a time horizon, which permits to define resources and logistics with anticipation, needed to distribute products on time. Total absence of historical data, required by many statistical models to forecast, demands the search for other kind of accurate techniques. This work presents an alternative that not only permits to forecast, in an adjusted way, but also, to provide optimal quantities to produce and store with an optimal cost, using Bayesian statistics. The proposal is illustrated with real data. Palabras clave: estadística bayesiana, optimización, modelo de inventarios, modelo lineal dinámico bayesiano. Keywords: Bayesian statistics, opti |
| format | Online |
| id | oai:oai.revistas.uptc.edu.co:article-3937 |
| institution | Revista Ingeniería, Investigación y Desarrollo |
| language | spa |
| publishDate | 2014 |
| publisher | Universidad Pedagógica y Tecnológica de Colombia - UPTC |
| record_format | ojs |
| spelling | oai:oai.revistas.uptc.edu.co:article-39372017-06-28T22:07:57Z Inventory model using bayesian dynamic linear model for demand forecasting Modelo de inventarios que utiliza el modelo lineal dinámico bayesiano para el pronóstico de demanda Valencia-Cárdenas, Marisol Correa-Morales, Juan Carlos Díaz-Serna, Francisco Javier bayesian statistics optimization inventory models dynamic linear model. estadística bayesiana optimización modelo de inventarios modelo lineal dinámico bayesiano An important factor of manufacturing process is the inventory management of terminated product. Constantly, industry is looking for better alternatives to establish an adequate plan of production and stored quantities, with optimal cost, getting quantities in a time horizon, which permits to define resources and logistics with anticipation, needed to distribute products on time. Total absence of historical data, required by many statistical models to forecast, demands the search for other kind of accurate techniques. This work presents an alternative that not only permits to forecast, in an adjusted way, but also, to provide optimal quantities to produce and store with an optimal cost, using Bayesian statistics. The proposal is illustrated with real data. Palabras clave: estadística bayesiana, optimización, modelo de inventarios, modelo lineal dinámico bayesiano. Keywords: Bayesian statistics, opti Un factor importante de los procesos de manufactura es la administración de los inventarios de productoterminado. Constantemente la industria está en busca de mejores alternativas para establecer adecuados planes de cantidades por producir y almacenar, a costo óptimo, logrando con ello un horizonte que permita definir con anticipación la logística y los recursos necesarios para la entrega a tiempo de sus productos. La ausencia de datos históricos, requeridos por muchos modelos estadísticos para pronosticar, exige la búsqueda de nuevas técnicas de estimación de demanda con precisión. Este trabajo presenta una alternativa que no solo permite pronosticar de forma ajustada a la realidad, sino dar cantidades óptimas para producir y almacenar inventarios a costo óptimo, usando estadística bayesiana. Se ilustra la propuesta con datos reales. Universidad Pedagógica y Tecnológica de Colombia - UPTC 2014-12-20 info:eu-repo/semantics/article info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion application/pdf https://revistas.uptc.edu.co/index.php/ingenieria_sogamoso/article/view/3937 10.19053/1900771X.3937 Ingeniería Investigación y Desarrollo; Vol. 15 No. 1: enero-junio de 2015; 39-47 Ingeniería Investigación y Desarrollo; Vol. 15 Núm. 1: enero-junio de 2015; 39-47 2422-4324 1900-771X spa https://revistas.uptc.edu.co/index.php/ingenieria_sogamoso/article/view/3937/3416 Derechos de autor 2015 Ingeniería Investigación y Desarrollo |
| spellingShingle | bayesian statistics optimization inventory models dynamic linear model. estadística bayesiana optimización modelo de inventarios modelo lineal dinámico bayesiano Valencia-Cárdenas, Marisol Correa-Morales, Juan Carlos Díaz-Serna, Francisco Javier Inventory model using bayesian dynamic linear model for demand forecasting |
| title | Inventory model using bayesian dynamic linear model for demand forecasting |
| title_alt | Modelo de inventarios que utiliza el modelo lineal dinámico bayesiano para el pronóstico de demanda |
| title_full | Inventory model using bayesian dynamic linear model for demand forecasting |
| title_fullStr | Inventory model using bayesian dynamic linear model for demand forecasting |
| title_full_unstemmed | Inventory model using bayesian dynamic linear model for demand forecasting |
| title_short | Inventory model using bayesian dynamic linear model for demand forecasting |
| title_sort | inventory model using bayesian dynamic linear model for demand forecasting |
| topic | bayesian statistics optimization inventory models dynamic linear model. estadística bayesiana optimización modelo de inventarios modelo lineal dinámico bayesiano |
| topic_facet | bayesian statistics optimization inventory models dynamic linear model. estadística bayesiana optimización modelo de inventarios modelo lineal dinámico bayesiano |
| url | https://revistas.uptc.edu.co/index.php/ingenieria_sogamoso/article/view/3937 |
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