Model for risk analysis of financial bankruptcy in agribusiness SMEs of Antioquia - Colombia
The risk of bankruptcy in Antioquia’s agribusiness sector has not been extensively explored using statistical modeling, which can provide important elements and trends in order to understand the behavior of this important sector for the regional economy. This paper estimated a linear mixed model, wh...
| Main Authors: | , , , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Online |
| Language: | spa |
| Published: |
Universidad Pedagógica y Tecnológica de Colombia
2016
|
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://revistas.uptc.edu.co/index.php/cenes/article/view/4310 |
| _version_ | 1801705953800749056 |
|---|---|
| author | Valencia Cárdenas, Marisol Trochez González, Johanna Vanegas López, Juan Gabriel Restrepo Morales, Jorge Anibal |
| author_facet | Valencia Cárdenas, Marisol Trochez González, Johanna Vanegas López, Juan Gabriel Restrepo Morales, Jorge Anibal |
| author_sort | Valencia Cárdenas, Marisol |
| collection | OJS |
| description | The risk of bankruptcy in Antioquia’s agribusiness sector has not been extensively explored using statistical modeling, which can provide important elements and trends in order to understand the behavior of this important sector for the regional economy. This paper estimated a linear mixed model, which was used as the response variable the score obtained with Altman’s Z-Score Model, which is a latent index estimated on the basis of observable financial variables and that depending on its value, ranks companies as solvent or insolvent. The Altman’s Index was computed by company and year within the period 2010-2014, using a sample of 214 small and medium-sized companies from different subsector of the agribusiness sector in Antioquia. The results show that the percentage of firms that enter the area of insolvency increased systematically during the time period from 8.08% in 2010 to 13% in 2014 |
| format | Online |
| id | oai:oai.revistas.uptc.edu.co:article-4310 |
| institution | Revista Apuntes del Cenes |
| language | spa |
| publishDate | 2016 |
| publisher | Universidad Pedagógica y Tecnológica de Colombia |
| record_format | ojs |
| spelling | oai:oai.revistas.uptc.edu.co:article-43102022-06-17T21:34:17Z Model for risk analysis of financial bankruptcy in agribusiness SMEs of Antioquia - Colombia Modelo para el análisis de la quiebra financiera en pymes agroindustriales antioqueñas Valencia Cárdenas, Marisol Trochez González, Johanna Vanegas López, Juan Gabriel Restrepo Morales, Jorge Anibal risk of bankruptcy agricultural economics statistical methods linear mixed model riesgo de quiebra economía de la agricultura métodos estadísticos modelo lineal mixto. The risk of bankruptcy in Antioquia’s agribusiness sector has not been extensively explored using statistical modeling, which can provide important elements and trends in order to understand the behavior of this important sector for the regional economy. This paper estimated a linear mixed model, which was used as the response variable the score obtained with Altman’s Z-Score Model, which is a latent index estimated on the basis of observable financial variables and that depending on its value, ranks companies as solvent or insolvent. The Altman’s Index was computed by company and year within the period 2010-2014, using a sample of 214 small and medium-sized companies from different subsector of the agribusiness sector in Antioquia. The results show that the percentage of firms that enter the area of insolvency increased systematically during the time period from 8.08% in 2010 to 13% in 2014 El riesgo de quiebra en el sector agroindustrial antioqueño no ha sido ampliamente explorado a partir de modelación estadística, que puede proveer importantes elementos y tendencias para conocer el comportamiento de este sector determinante en la economía regional. Este análisis se basó en un modelo lineal mixto, que utilizó como variable respuesta el puntaje obtenido con el índice Z de Altman, el cual es un índice latente estimado a partir de variables financieras observables y que, dependiendo de su valor, clasifica las empresas en solventes e insolventes. La metodología utilizada determinó, en primera instancia, el tamaño de muestra por subsector, y luego estimó el índice Z de Altman por empresa y año, para el periodo comprendido entre 2010-2014. Con dichos índices como respuesta por empresa, se estableció un modelo lineal mixto, que permitió identificar la presencia de cambios significativos entre los diferentes subsectores de la agroindustria antioqueña, para evaluar y diagnosticar problemas de insolvencia futuros para el sector. Universidad Pedagógica y Tecnológica de Colombia 2016-07-26 info:eu-repo/semantics/article info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion Peer reviewed Article application/pdf text/html https://revistas.uptc.edu.co/index.php/cenes/article/view/4310 10.19053/22565779.4310 Apuntes del Cenes; Vol. 35 No. 62 (2016); 147-168 Apuntes del Cenes; Vol. 35 Núm. 62 (2016); 147-168 2256-5779 0120-3053 spa https://revistas.uptc.edu.co/index.php/cenes/article/view/4310/4307 https://revistas.uptc.edu.co/index.php/cenes/article/view/4310/6252 Copyright (c) 2016 Marisol Valencia Cárdenas, Johanna Trochez González, Juan Gabriel Vanegas López, Jorge Anibal Restrepo Morales http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/4.0 |
| spellingShingle | risk of bankruptcy agricultural economics statistical methods linear mixed model riesgo de quiebra economía de la agricultura métodos estadísticos modelo lineal mixto. Valencia Cárdenas, Marisol Trochez González, Johanna Vanegas López, Juan Gabriel Restrepo Morales, Jorge Anibal Model for risk analysis of financial bankruptcy in agribusiness SMEs of Antioquia - Colombia |
| title | Model for risk analysis of financial bankruptcy in agribusiness SMEs of Antioquia - Colombia |
| title_alt | Modelo para el análisis de la quiebra financiera en pymes agroindustriales antioqueñas |
| title_full | Model for risk analysis of financial bankruptcy in agribusiness SMEs of Antioquia - Colombia |
| title_fullStr | Model for risk analysis of financial bankruptcy in agribusiness SMEs of Antioquia - Colombia |
| title_full_unstemmed | Model for risk analysis of financial bankruptcy in agribusiness SMEs of Antioquia - Colombia |
| title_short | Model for risk analysis of financial bankruptcy in agribusiness SMEs of Antioquia - Colombia |
| title_sort | model for risk analysis of financial bankruptcy in agribusiness smes of antioquia colombia |
| topic | risk of bankruptcy agricultural economics statistical methods linear mixed model riesgo de quiebra economía de la agricultura métodos estadísticos modelo lineal mixto. |
| topic_facet | risk of bankruptcy agricultural economics statistical methods linear mixed model riesgo de quiebra economía de la agricultura métodos estadísticos modelo lineal mixto. |
| url | https://revistas.uptc.edu.co/index.php/cenes/article/view/4310 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT valenciacardenasmarisol modelforriskanalysisoffinancialbankruptcyinagribusinesssmesofantioquiacolombia AT trochezgonzalezjohanna modelforriskanalysisoffinancialbankruptcyinagribusinesssmesofantioquiacolombia AT vanegaslopezjuangabriel modelforriskanalysisoffinancialbankruptcyinagribusinesssmesofantioquiacolombia AT restrepomoralesjorgeanibal modelforriskanalysisoffinancialbankruptcyinagribusinesssmesofantioquiacolombia AT valenciacardenasmarisol modeloparaelanalisisdelaquiebrafinancieraenpymesagroindustrialesantioquenas AT trochezgonzalezjohanna modeloparaelanalisisdelaquiebrafinancieraenpymesagroindustrialesantioquenas AT vanegaslopezjuangabriel modeloparaelanalisisdelaquiebrafinancieraenpymesagroindustrialesantioquenas AT restrepomoralesjorgeanibal modeloparaelanalisisdelaquiebrafinancieraenpymesagroindustrialesantioquenas |
