Advanced global indicator of short and long term for the economy of Cauca 1960-2014
This paper proposes to build a leading or advanced indicator to the economy of Cauca department, through three alternative methodologies that depart from the traditional methodology based on National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER). Three indicators are proposed to achieve this, both short and lo...
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| Format: | Online |
| Language: | spa |
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Universidad Pedagógica y Tecnológica de Colombia
2016
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| Online Access: | https://revistas.uptc.edu.co/index.php/cenes/article/view/5231 |
| _version_ | 1801705954855616512 |
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| author | Gómez Sánchez, Andrés Mauricio Sarmiento Castillo, Juliana Isabel Fajardo Hoyos, Claudia Liceth |
| author_facet | Gómez Sánchez, Andrés Mauricio Sarmiento Castillo, Juliana Isabel Fajardo Hoyos, Claudia Liceth |
| author_sort | Gómez Sánchez, Andrés Mauricio |
| collection | OJS |
| description | This paper proposes to build a leading or advanced indicator to the economy of Cauca department, through three alternative methodologies that depart from the traditional methodology based on National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER). Three indicators are proposed to achieve this, both short and long term, under the method of linear decomposition of the cycle, another synthetic overall indicator based on the methodology of the main components and finally another using the Kalman filter algorithm. The results show, among other things, that the indicator on Kalman scenario exceeds in statistic robustness the other two indicators and predicts a positive economic growth for the region in the coming years. |
| format | Online |
| id | oai:oai.revistas.uptc.edu.co:article-5231 |
| institution | Revista Apuntes del Cenes |
| language | spa |
| publishDate | 2016 |
| publisher | Universidad Pedagógica y Tecnológica de Colombia |
| record_format | ojs |
| spelling | oai:oai.revistas.uptc.edu.co:article-52312022-08-24T13:50:47Z Advanced global indicator of short and long term for the economy of Cauca 1960-2014 Indicador global adelantado de corto y largo plazo para la economía del Cauca 1960-2014 Gómez Sánchez, Andrés Mauricio Sarmiento Castillo, Juliana Isabel Fajardo Hoyos, Claudia Liceth leading indicator business cycles Kalman filter principal components regional economy indicador líder ciclos económicos filtro de Kalman componentes principales economía regional. This paper proposes to build a leading or advanced indicator to the economy of Cauca department, through three alternative methodologies that depart from the traditional methodology based on National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER). Three indicators are proposed to achieve this, both short and long term, under the method of linear decomposition of the cycle, another synthetic overall indicator based on the methodology of the main components and finally another using the Kalman filter algorithm. The results show, among other things, that the indicator on Kalman scenario exceeds in statistic robustness the other two indicators and predicts a positive economic growth for the region in the coming years. Este documento propone la construcción de un indicador líder o adelantado para la economía del departamento del Cauca, a través de tres metodologías alternativas, distantes de las tradicionalmente basadas en la metodología National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER). Para lograrlo, se utilizan tres indicadores de corto y largo plazo, bajo el método de descomposición lineal del ciclo, otro indicador global sintético basado en la metodología de los componentes principales y finalmente otro que utiliza el algoritmo del filtro de Kalman. Los resultados muestran, entre otros aspectos, que el indicador en el escenario Kalman supera en robustez estadística a los otros dos indicadores y augura uncrecimiento económico positivo para esta región en los años venideros. Universidad Pedagógica y Tecnológica de Colombia 2016-07-26 info:eu-repo/semantics/article info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion Peer reviewed Article application/pdf text/html https://revistas.uptc.edu.co/index.php/cenes/article/view/5231 10.19053/22565779.5231 Apuntes del Cenes; Vol. 35 No. 62 (2016); 209-244 Apuntes del Cenes; Vol. 35 Núm. 62 (2016); 209-244 2256-5779 0120-3053 spa https://revistas.uptc.edu.co/index.php/cenes/article/view/5231/4304 https://revistas.uptc.edu.co/index.php/cenes/article/view/5231/6254 Copyright (c) 2016 Andrés Mauricio Gómez Sánchez, Juliana Isabel Sarmiento Castillo, Claudia Liceth Fajardo Hoyos http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/4.0 |
| spellingShingle | leading indicator business cycles Kalman filter principal components regional economy indicador líder ciclos económicos filtro de Kalman componentes principales economía regional. Gómez Sánchez, Andrés Mauricio Sarmiento Castillo, Juliana Isabel Fajardo Hoyos, Claudia Liceth Advanced global indicator of short and long term for the economy of Cauca 1960-2014 |
| title | Advanced global indicator of short and long term for the economy of Cauca 1960-2014 |
| title_alt | Indicador global adelantado de corto y largo plazo para la economía del Cauca 1960-2014 |
| title_full | Advanced global indicator of short and long term for the economy of Cauca 1960-2014 |
| title_fullStr | Advanced global indicator of short and long term for the economy of Cauca 1960-2014 |
| title_full_unstemmed | Advanced global indicator of short and long term for the economy of Cauca 1960-2014 |
| title_short | Advanced global indicator of short and long term for the economy of Cauca 1960-2014 |
| title_sort | advanced global indicator of short and long term for the economy of cauca 1960 2014 |
| topic | leading indicator business cycles Kalman filter principal components regional economy indicador líder ciclos económicos filtro de Kalman componentes principales economía regional. |
| topic_facet | leading indicator business cycles Kalman filter principal components regional economy indicador líder ciclos económicos filtro de Kalman componentes principales economía regional. |
| url | https://revistas.uptc.edu.co/index.php/cenes/article/view/5231 |
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