Behavior of market prices and analysis of volatility for peach (Prunus persica [L.] Batsch.) produced in Boyaca, Colombia
At present, there are different studies on deciduous fruits, including the peach, for subjects such as production, harvest, postharvest, and markets. However, for developing the formulation of investment projects, the behavior of fruit prices in the most representative markets of the country are unk...
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| Format: | Online |
| Language: | spa |
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Sociedad Colombiana de Ciencias Hortícolas-SCCH and Universidad Pedagógica y Tecnológica de Colombia-UPTC
2017
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| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://revistas.uptc.edu.co/index.php/ciencias_horticolas/article/view/6161 |
| _version_ | 1801706272326680576 |
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| author | González G., Andrés Puentes M., Gloria A. Ruiz R., Edgar F. |
| author_facet | González G., Andrés Puentes M., Gloria A. Ruiz R., Edgar F. |
| author_sort | González G., Andrés |
| collection | OJS |
| description | At present, there are different studies on deciduous fruits, including the peach, for subjects such as production, harvest, postharvest, and markets. However, for developing the formulation of investment projects, the behavior of fruit prices in the most representative markets of the country are unknown for recent years. This research focused on the analysis of peach prices in three markets in Colombia: (a) Central de Abastos of Bogota, (b) Wholesaler of Antioquia, Medellín and (c) Reten Sur de Tunja, with the objective of verifying whether seasonality and volatility in market prices have occurred during the period 2006 to 2011, even more so when small producers report that agribusiness is becoming less profitable. When new projects are developed to invest in these species, difficulty in the allocation of sales prices is seen. This increases risk in decision making for producers. The study began with the analysis of the generalities of production of deciduous fruits and peaches, a product that is concentrated mainly in the department of Boyacá, Colombia, in agribusinesses of smallholders with a rural economy. It continued with the relation of data of prices per kg/month between the years 2006 and 2011. In the three markets, the methodology used an exploratory analysis of the prices by means of the Singular Spectral Analysis, along with the Loess Method and the Box and Jenkins methodology. It was possible to determine the trend behavior and seasonality in the peach prices. On the other hand, it was observed that a seasonal and trend behavior was not present in the markets of Corabastos of Bogota or Central Wholesale of Antioquia, but seasonality was seen in the market of Tunja. It should be emphasized that the price volatility was not observed in the three markets; it was determined that the current average price per kg of peach fruits in the Reten Sur de Tunja market is $1,800 Colombian Pesos (USD 0.60) and $3,500 Colombian Pesos (USD 1.17) in the Bogotá and Medellin markets, respectively. |
| format | Online |
| id | oai:oai.revistas.uptc.edu.co:article-6161 |
| institution | Revista Colombiana de Ciencias Hortícolas |
| language | spa |
| publishDate | 2017 |
| publisher | Sociedad Colombiana de Ciencias Hortícolas-SCCH and Universidad Pedagógica y Tecnológica de Colombia-UPTC |
| record_format | ojs |
| spelling | oai:oai.revistas.uptc.edu.co:article-61612020-08-03T23:58:38Z Behavior of market prices and analysis of volatility for peach (Prunus persica [L.] Batsch.) produced in Boyaca, Colombia Comportamiento de precios de mercados y análisis de volatilidad, para durazno (Prunus persica [L.] Batsch.) producido en Boyacá, Colombia González G., Andrés Puentes M., Gloria A. Ruiz R., Edgar F. Seasonality trend time series planning agribusiness. Estacionalidad tendencia series de tiempo planificación agroempresa. At present, there are different studies on deciduous fruits, including the peach, for subjects such as production, harvest, postharvest, and markets. However, for developing the formulation of investment projects, the behavior of fruit prices in the most representative markets of the country are unknown for recent years. This research focused on the analysis of peach prices in three markets in Colombia: (a) Central de Abastos of Bogota, (b) Wholesaler of Antioquia, Medellín and (c) Reten Sur de Tunja, with the objective of verifying whether seasonality and volatility in market prices have occurred during the period 2006 to 2011, even more so when small producers report that agribusiness is becoming less profitable. When new projects are developed to invest in these species, difficulty in the allocation of sales prices is seen. This increases risk in decision making for producers. The study began with the analysis of the generalities of production of deciduous fruits and peaches, a product that is concentrated mainly in the department of Boyacá, Colombia, in agribusinesses of smallholders with a rural economy. It continued with the relation of data of prices per kg/month between the years 2006 and 2011. In the three markets, the methodology used an exploratory analysis of the prices by means of the Singular Spectral Analysis, along with the Loess Method and the Box and Jenkins methodology. It was possible to determine the trend behavior and seasonality in the peach prices. On the other hand, it was observed that a seasonal and trend behavior was not present in the markets of Corabastos of Bogota or Central Wholesale of Antioquia, but seasonality was seen in the market of Tunja. It should be emphasized that the price volatility was not observed in the three markets; it was determined that the current average price per kg of peach fruits in the Reten Sur de Tunja market is $1,800 Colombian Pesos (USD 0.60) and $3,500 Colombian Pesos (USD 1.17) in the Bogotá and Medellin markets, respectively. En la actualidad, se encuentran diferentes estudios de caducifolios, y en este caso de durazno en temas como producción, cosecha, poscosecha, mercados. Sin embargo, al desarrollar la formulación de los proyectos de inversión, no se conoce el comportamiento del precio de la fruta en los últimos años, en los mercados más representativos del país. Es así como se desarrolló esta investigación centrada en el análisis de los precios de durazno en tres mercados de Colombia: (a) Central de Abastos de Bogotá, (b) Mayorista de Antioquia, Medellín y (c) Retén sur de Tunja, con el objetivo de comprobar si durante el período 2006 al 2011, se ha presentado estacionalidad y volatilidad en los precios de mercados, más aun cuando los pequeños productores manifiestan que cada vez este agronegocio es menos rentable y al elaborar nuevos proyectos para invertir en esta especie, se presenta la dificultad en la asignación de los precios de venta. Este aspecto incrementa el riesgo en la toma de decisiones para los productores. El estudio inició desde el análisis de las generalidades de la producción de caducifolios y del durazno, producto que se concentra principalmente en el departamento de Boyacá, Colombia, en agroempresas de tipo minifundistas, de economía campesina. Continuó con la relación de datos de precios por kg/mes, entre el año 2006 y 2011. En los tres mercados, la metodología utilizada fue un análisis exploratorio de los precios por medio del Análisis Espectral Singular, utilizando el Método de Loess. Además, se empleó la metodología de Box y Jenkins. Se logró determinar el comportamiento de tendencia y estacionalidad en los precios del durazno. De otra parte, se identificó que el comportamiento estacional y de tendencia no está presente en los mercados Corabastos de Bogotá y Central mayorista de Antioquia, sí se encontró estacionalidad en el mercado de Tunja. Cabe resaltar que la volatilidad de los precios no se observó en los tres mercados estudiados, se determinó que el precio promedio actual de duraznos per kg en el mercado de Retén sur de Tunja es de $1.800 (USD 0,60) y de $3.500 (USD 1,17) en los mercados de Bogotá y Medellín. Sociedad Colombiana de Ciencias Hortícolas-SCCH and Universidad Pedagógica y Tecnológica de Colombia-UPTC 2017-06-13 info:eu-repo/semantics/article info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion application/pdf https://revistas.uptc.edu.co/index.php/ciencias_horticolas/article/view/6161 10.17584/rcch.2017v11i1.6161 Revista Colombiana de Ciencias Hortícolas; Vol. 11 No. 1 (2017); 48-62 Revista Colombiana de Ciencias Hortícolas; Vol. 11 Núm. 1 (2017); 48-62 Revista Colombiana de Ciencias Hortícolas; Vol. 11 No 1 (2017); 48-62 Revista Colombiana de Ciencias Hortícolas; V. 11 N. 1 (2017); 48-62 Revista Colombiana de Ciencias Hortícolas; v. 11 n. 1 (2017); 48-62 2422-3719 2011-2173 spa https://revistas.uptc.edu.co/index.php/ciencias_horticolas/article/view/6161/pdf |
| spellingShingle | Seasonality trend time series planning agribusiness. Estacionalidad tendencia series de tiempo planificación agroempresa. González G., Andrés Puentes M., Gloria A. Ruiz R., Edgar F. Behavior of market prices and analysis of volatility for peach (Prunus persica [L.] Batsch.) produced in Boyaca, Colombia |
| title | Behavior of market prices and analysis of volatility for peach (Prunus persica [L.] Batsch.) produced in Boyaca, Colombia |
| title_alt | Comportamiento de precios de mercados y análisis de volatilidad, para durazno (Prunus persica [L.] Batsch.) producido en Boyacá, Colombia |
| title_full | Behavior of market prices and analysis of volatility for peach (Prunus persica [L.] Batsch.) produced in Boyaca, Colombia |
| title_fullStr | Behavior of market prices and analysis of volatility for peach (Prunus persica [L.] Batsch.) produced in Boyaca, Colombia |
| title_full_unstemmed | Behavior of market prices and analysis of volatility for peach (Prunus persica [L.] Batsch.) produced in Boyaca, Colombia |
| title_short | Behavior of market prices and analysis of volatility for peach (Prunus persica [L.] Batsch.) produced in Boyaca, Colombia |
| title_sort | behavior of market prices and analysis of volatility for peach prunus persica l batsch produced in boyaca colombia |
| topic | Seasonality trend time series planning agribusiness. Estacionalidad tendencia series de tiempo planificación agroempresa. |
| topic_facet | Seasonality trend time series planning agribusiness. Estacionalidad tendencia series de tiempo planificación agroempresa. |
| url | https://revistas.uptc.edu.co/index.php/ciencias_horticolas/article/view/6161 |
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