Stochastic Simulation to Determine the Present Net Value and Uncertainty Costin a Wind Power Plant
This document presents a proposal for stochastic simulation to determine the investment uncertainties and the uncertainty cost of operation for a wind power plant. Taking as a study object a hypothetical wind plant in Cabo de la Vela, in La Guajira, Colombia, with the same characte...
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| Format: | Online |
| Language: | spa |
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Universidad Pedagógica y Tecnológica de Colombia
2019
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| Online Access: | https://revistas.uptc.edu.co/index.php/ciencia_en_desarrollo/article/view/7678 |
| _version_ | 1801706341227560960 |
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| author | Rivera, Sergio Valencia, Tomas |
| author_facet | Rivera, Sergio Valencia, Tomas |
| author_sort | Rivera, Sergio |
| collection | OJS |
| description | This document presents a proposal for stochastic simulation to determine the investment uncertainties and
the uncertainty cost of operation for a wind power plant. Taking as a study object a hypothetical wind plant in Cabo de la Vela, in La Guajira, Colombia, with the same characteristics as the current Jepirachi plant of EPM, where the probability density function of the net present value of the project is found, and the probability of project profitability. Additionally, the uncertainty cost for the operation of the plant is determined depending on the different monthly scenarios of the primary energy (wind speed). This cost approximates a quadratic function that serves as a cost element in the problem of economic dispatch considering renewables. Finally, the results obtained and future developments are discussed |
| format | Online |
| id | oai:oai.revistas.uptc.edu.co:article-7678 |
| institution | Revista Ciencia en Desarrollo |
| language | spa |
| publishDate | 2019 |
| publisher | Universidad Pedagógica y Tecnológica de Colombia |
| record_format | ojs |
| spelling | oai:oai.revistas.uptc.edu.co:article-76782022-06-15T17:00:34Z Stochastic Simulation to Determine the Present Net Value and Uncertainty Costin a Wind Power Plant Simulación Estocástica para Determinar el Valor Presente Neto y el Costo de Incertidumbre en una Planta Eólica Rivera, Sergio Valencia, Tomas Energía Eólica Modelación de Incertidumbre Procesos Estocásticos Simulación de monte Carlo. Monte Carlo Simulations, Stochastic Process, Uncertainty Modeling, Wind Energy. This document presents a proposal for stochastic simulation to determine the investment uncertainties and the uncertainty cost of operation for a wind power plant. Taking as a study object a hypothetical wind plant in Cabo de la Vela, in La Guajira, Colombia, with the same characteristics as the current Jepirachi plant of EPM, where the probability density function of the net present value of the project is found, and the probability of project profitability. Additionally, the uncertainty cost for the operation of the plant is determined depending on the different monthly scenarios of the primary energy (wind speed). This cost approximates a quadratic function that serves as a cost element in the problem of economic dispatch considering renewables. Finally, the results obtained and future developments are discussed En este documento se presenta una propuesta de simulación estocástica para determinar las incertidumbres en la inversión y el costo de incertidumbre de operación para una planta eólica. Tomando como objeto de estudio una planta eólica hipotética en El Cabo de la Vela, en La Guajira, Colombia, con las mismas características que la planta actual Jepirachi de EPM, donde se halla la función de densidad de probabilidad del valor presente neto del proyecto, y de esta forma evaluar qué tan probable es que éste sea rentable. Adicionalmente, se determina el costo de incertidumbre para la operación de la planta dependiendo de los diferentes escenarios mensuales de la energía primaria (velocidad del viento). Este costo se aproxima a una función cuadratica que sirve como elemento de costos en el problema de despacho económico cuando existen renovables. Finalmente, se discuten los resultados obtenidos y futuros desarrollos. Universidad Pedagógica y Tecnológica de Colombia 2019-07-27 info:eu-repo/semantics/article info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion Investigacion application/pdf https://revistas.uptc.edu.co/index.php/ciencia_en_desarrollo/article/view/7678 10.19053/01217488.v10.n2.2019.7678 Ciencia En Desarrollo; Vol. 10 No. 2 (2019): Vol 10, Núm. 2 (2019): Julio - Diciembre; 151-164 Ciencia en Desarrollo; Vol. 10 Núm. 2 (2019): Vol 10, Núm. 2 (2019): Julio - Diciembre; 151-164 2462-7658 0121-7488 spa https://revistas.uptc.edu.co/index.php/ciencia_en_desarrollo/article/view/7678/8717 |
| spellingShingle | Energía Eólica Modelación de Incertidumbre Procesos Estocásticos Simulación de monte Carlo. Monte Carlo Simulations, Stochastic Process, Uncertainty Modeling, Wind Energy. Rivera, Sergio Valencia, Tomas Stochastic Simulation to Determine the Present Net Value and Uncertainty Costin a Wind Power Plant |
| title | Stochastic Simulation to Determine the Present Net Value and Uncertainty Costin a Wind Power Plant |
| title_alt | Simulación Estocástica para Determinar el Valor Presente Neto y el Costo de Incertidumbre en una Planta Eólica |
| title_full | Stochastic Simulation to Determine the Present Net Value and Uncertainty Costin a Wind Power Plant |
| title_fullStr | Stochastic Simulation to Determine the Present Net Value and Uncertainty Costin a Wind Power Plant |
| title_full_unstemmed | Stochastic Simulation to Determine the Present Net Value and Uncertainty Costin a Wind Power Plant |
| title_short | Stochastic Simulation to Determine the Present Net Value and Uncertainty Costin a Wind Power Plant |
| title_sort | stochastic simulation to determine the present net value and uncertainty costin a wind power plant |
| topic | Energía Eólica Modelación de Incertidumbre Procesos Estocásticos Simulación de monte Carlo. Monte Carlo Simulations, Stochastic Process, Uncertainty Modeling, Wind Energy. |
| topic_facet | Energía Eólica Modelación de Incertidumbre Procesos Estocásticos Simulación de monte Carlo. Monte Carlo Simulations, Stochastic Process, Uncertainty Modeling, Wind Energy. |
| url | https://revistas.uptc.edu.co/index.php/ciencia_en_desarrollo/article/view/7678 |
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